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Virtus Entella vs Vicenza Virtus Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Virtus Entella

PPG 1.41 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

UPCOMING

Vicenza Virtus

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.8%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.5%1-112.1%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.4%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.6%3-14.9%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 46.5% 2.15 -0.4%

Draw 26.0% 34.5% 2.90 -14.8%

Away win 27.8% 28.6% 3.50 -1.6%

Over 2.5 50.6% 41.7% 2.40 +21.4%

Over 3.5 30.7% 22.2% 4.50 +38.1%

BTTS 52.9% 51.3% 1.95 +3.1%

Home O1.5 45.7% 40.0% 2.50 +14.2%

Away O1.5 32.5% 26.7% 3.75 +21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 12.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Virtus Entella1.6

Vicenza Virtus1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VIRTUS ENTELLA · PPG 1.41

VICENZA VIRTUS · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Virtus Entella (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -0.4%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.8%

Vicenza Virtus (A) 27.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Virtus Entella face Vicenza Virtus in Italy - Serie B on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Virtus Entella a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Vicenza Virtus 28%, so Virtus Entella are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Virtus Entella and 1.1 for Vicenza Virtus (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Virtus Entella are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.25 for Vicenza Virtus. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +38.1%.

Virtus Entella vs Vicenza Virtus Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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