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Hellas Verona vs Arezzo Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:15

Hellas Verona

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LD ···

UPCOMING

Arezzo

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-17.7%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.5%1-112.0%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.3%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.2%3-14.8%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 58.8% 1.70 -23.2%

Draw 25.3% 28.6% 3.50 -6.9%

Away win 29.4% 21.1% 4.75 +23.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 51.3% 1.95 +4.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 29.4% 3.40 +7.4%

BTTS 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Home O1.5 45.9% 55.6% 1.80 -17.4%

Away O1.5 33.2% 26.7% 3.75 +24.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 12.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hellas Verona1.6

Arezzo1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HELLAS VERONA · PPG 1.25

AREZZO · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hellas Verona (H) 45.2%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -23.2%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.9%

Arezzo (A) 29.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hellas Verona face Arezzo in Italy - Serie B on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hellas Verona a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Arezzo 29%, so Hellas Verona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hellas Verona and 1.1 for Arezzo (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hellas Verona are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.75 for Arezzo. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +46.6%.

Hellas Verona vs Arezzo Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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