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Sudtirol vs Catanzaro Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Sudtirol

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

UPCOMING

Catanzaro

PPG 0.97 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-17.5%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.0%1-111.9%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.5%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.1%3-15.0%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 41.7% 2.40 +21.4%

Draw 25.3% 34.7% 2.88 -16.3%

Away win 24.1% 33.3% 3.00 -16.6%

Over 2.5 50.6% 46.5% 2.15 +8.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 47.6% 40.0% 2.50 +19.0%

Away O1.5 29.8% 30.8% 3.25 -1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 12.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sudtirol1.6

Catanzaro1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SUDTIROL · PPG 1.56

CATANZARO · PPG 0.97

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sudtirol (H) 50.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +21.4%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -16.3%

Catanzaro (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sudtirol face Catanzaro in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sudtirol a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Catanzaro 24%, so Sudtirol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sudtirol and 1.0 for Catanzaro (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sudtirol are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.97 for Catanzaro. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +21.0%.

Sudtirol vs Catanzaro Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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