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Cremonese vs Padova Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:30

Cremonese

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

UPCOMING

Padova

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-110.1%0-25.3%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.4%1-113.0%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.0%2-18.4%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.5%3-13.6%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 54.1% 1.85 -29.7%

Draw 27.4% 30.8% 3.25 -6.6%

Away win 34.6% 25.0% 4.00 +38.4%

Over 2.5 44.5% 50.0% 2.00 -11.0%

Over 3.5 25.7% 28.6% 3.50 -6.0%

BTTS 48.7% 54.1% 1.85 -9.9%

Home O1.5 38.4% 50.0% 2.00 -23.2%

Away O1.5 32.5% 28.6% 3.50 +13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 12.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.7%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 0–1 10.1%

#4 1–0 12.4%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cremonese1.3

Padova1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CREMONESE · PPG 1.25

PADOVA · PPG 1.54

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

49%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cremonese (H) 38.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -29.7%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.6%

Padova (A) 34.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +38.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cremonese face Padova in Italy - Serie B on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cremonese a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Padova 35%, so Cremonese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Cremonese and 1.1 for Padova (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cremonese are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.54 for Padova. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +36.5%.

Cremonese vs Padova Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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