Today / Italy - Serie B / Cesena vs Mantova

Cesena vs Mantova Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

Cesena

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

UPCOMING

Mantova

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.8%0-24.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.8%1-112.0%1-26.7%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.3%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.3%3-14.8%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 40.8% 2.45 +10.0%

Draw 25.8% 33.3% 3.00 -13.6%

Away win 29.3% 35.7% 2.80 -10.8%

Over 2.5 51.9% 50.0% 2.00 +3.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 29.4% 3.40 +7.4%

BTTS 53.9% 57.1% 1.75 -5.7%

Home O1.5 44.2% 42.0% 2.38 +5.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 38.2% 2.62 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 12.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.9%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cesena1.5

Mantova1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CESENA · PPG 1.29

MANTOVA · PPG 1.39

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cesena (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +10.0%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.6%

Mantova (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cesena face Mantova in Italy - Serie B on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cesena a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Mantova 29%, so Cesena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Cesena and 1.1 for Mantova (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cesena are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.39 for Mantova. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +12.1%.

Cesena vs Mantova Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie B Predictions