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Deportivo Maipu vs Chacarita J. Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 20:00

Deportivo Maipu

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Chacarita J.

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.0%0-110.6%0-23.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.6%1-112.2%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.2%2-17.0%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.3%3-12.7%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 50.0% 2.00 -2.2%

Draw 29.7% 34.5% 2.90 -8.3%

Away win 21.3% 25.6% 3.90 -10.2%

Over 2.5 34.0% 37.0% 2.70 -8.2%

Over 3.5 18.6% 20.0% 5.00 -4.2%

BTTS 45.5% 45.5% 2.20 +0.1%

Home O1.5 31.8% 40.0% 2.50 -20.5%

Away O1.5 12.9% 23.8% 4.20 -27.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.5%

H 49% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.0%

#2 1–0 19.6%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 2–0 11.2%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Maipu1.1

Chacarita J.0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MAIPU · PPG 2.00

CHACARITA J. · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=48.9%

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Maipu (H) 48.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -2.2%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.3%

Chacarita J. (A) 21.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Maipu face Chacarita J. in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Maipu a 49% chance, the draw 30% and Chacarita J. 21%, so Deportivo Maipu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Deportivo Maipu and 0.6 for Chacarita J. (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Maipu are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.33 for Chacarita J.. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 3-2.

Deportivo Maipu vs Chacarita J. Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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