Today / Iceland - Úrvalsdeild / Valur vs Vikingur R.

Valur vs Vikingur R. Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 19:15

Valur

PPG 1.80 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Vikingur R.

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 81.3% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-15.3%0-28.2%0-38.4%0-4+13.9%1 1-01.7%1-15.2%1-28.0%1-38.2%1-4+13.7%2 2-00.8%2-12.6%2-23.9%2-34.0%2-4+6.7%3 3-00.3%3-10.8%3-21.3%3-31.3%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.4% 18.2% 5.50 -15.8%

Draw 20.6% 20.8% 4.80 -0.7%

Away win 66.0% 71.4% 1.40 -7.6%

Over 2.5 65.8% 76.9% 1.30 -14.5%

Over 3.5 44.6% 55.6% 1.80 -19.7%

BTTS 61.0% 70.4% 1.42 -13.4%

Home O1.5 25.8% 38.5% 2.60 -19.8%

Away O1.5 81.3% 78.1% 1.28 +4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -7.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob61.0%

A 66% / xG 1.0-3.1 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 8.4%

#2 1–3 8.2%

#3 0–2 8.2%

#4 1–2 8.0%

#5 0–4 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valur1.0

Vikingur R.3.1

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VALUR · PPG 1.80

VIKINGUR R. · PPG 3.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Valur (H) 13.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -15.8%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -0.7%

Vikingur R. (A) 66.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valur face Vikingur R. in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valur a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Vikingur R. 66%, so Vikingur R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Valur and 3.1 for Vikingur R. (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valur are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 3.00 for Vikingur R.. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.5%. This match finished 1-5.

Valur vs Vikingur R. Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - Úrvalsdeild Predictions