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Lausanne B vs Basel B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 15:00

Lausanne B

PPG 1.46 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Basel B

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 90.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a clear edge.

+22.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.6%0-22.9%0-33.5%0-4+7.7%1 1-00.8%1-13.0%1-25.3%1-36.3%1-4+14.1%2 2-00.8%2-12.7%2-24.8%2-35.7%2-4+12.8%3 3-00.5%3-11.6%3-22.9%3-33.5%3-4+7.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-11.1%4+-22.0%4+-32.4%4+-4+5.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.0% 34.5% 2.90 -53.6%

Draw 13.7% 24.4% 4.10 -43.8%

Away win 70.3% 52.6% 1.90 +33.6%

Over 2.5 90.4% 73.5% 1.36 +22.9%

Over 3.5 78.4% — — —

BTTS 81.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)3.6 BTTS prob81.4%

A 70% / xG 1.8-3.6 / O2.5 90% / BTTS 81%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 6.3%

#2 2–3 5.7%

#3 1–4 5.6%

#4 1–2 5.3%

#5 2–4 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lausanne B1.8

Basel B3.6

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 90.4% · O3.5 PROB 78.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LAUSANNE B · PPG 1.46

BASEL B · PPG 1.69

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.46), Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Lausanne B (H) 16.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -53.6%

Draw 13.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -43.8%

Basel B (A) 70.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +33.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lausanne B face Basel B in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lausanne B a 16% chance, the draw 14% and Basel B 70%, so Basel B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Lausanne B and 3.6 for Basel B (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 90% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 81% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lausanne B are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.69 for Basel B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Lausanne B vs Basel B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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