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Santa Cruz vs Ferroviaria Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 19:00

Santa Cruz

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Ferroviaria

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-024.5%0-114.3%0-24.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.2%1-111.8%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.3%2-14.9%2-21.4%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.3%3-11.3%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% — — —

Draw 36.7% — — —

Away win 23.9% — — —

Over 2.5 25.8% — — —

Over 3.5 12.5% — — —

BTTS 44.4% — — —

Home O1.5 20.0% — — —

Away O1.5 11.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.4%

H 39% / xG 0.8-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 24.5%

#2 1–0 20.2%

#3 1–1✓ 11.8%

#4 0–1 14.3%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Cruz0.8

Ferroviaria0.6

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA CRUZ · PPG 2.00

FERROVIARIA · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Santa Cruz (H) 39.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 36.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ferroviaria (A) 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Cruz face Ferroviaria in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Cruz a 39% chance, the draw 37% and Ferroviaria 24%, so Santa Cruz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Santa Cruz and 0.6 for Ferroviaria (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Cruz are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Ferroviaria. This match finished 1-1.

Santa Cruz vs Ferroviaria Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie C Predictions