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Vasco da Gama vs Atletico MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 19:00

Vasco da Gama

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Atletico MG

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-19.9%0-25.8%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.9%1-112.9%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.1%2-18.3%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.1%3-13.6%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 50.0% 2.00 -27.6%

Draw 27.7% 30.3% 3.30 -5.1%

Away win 36.1% 26.7% 3.75 +35.4%

Over 2.5 48.5% 47.6% 2.10 +1.8%

Over 3.5 27.9% 26.3% 3.80 +3.6%

BTTS 52.5% 54.1% 1.85 -2.9%

Home O1.5 37.3% 46.5% 2.15 -19.8%

Away O1.5 33.0% 30.3% 3.30 +8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.5%

H 36% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.4%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 0–1✓ 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasco da Gama1.3

Atletico MG1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VASCO DA GAMA · PPG 1.78

ATLETICO MG · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.78) vs P(Home)=36.2%

Win probability 1X2

Vasco da Gama (H) 36.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -27.6%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.1%

Atletico MG (A) 36.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +35.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasco da Gama face Atletico MG in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasco da Gama a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Atletico MG 36%, so Vasco da Gama are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vasco da Gama and 1.2 for Atletico MG (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasco da Gama are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.67 for Atletico MG. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +35.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Vasco da Gama vs Atletico MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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