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Palmeiras vs Chapecoense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 19:00

Palmeiras

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Chapecoense

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 72% chance

Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-13.6%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.2%1-18.0%1-22.4%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.6%2-18.8%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.8%3-16.5%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.1%4+-16.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 82.0% 1.22 -22.0%

Draw 20.9% 16.9% 5.90 +14.0%

Away win 15.2% 8.0% 12.50 +54.0%

Over 2.5 54.9% 61.7% 1.62 -11.1%

Over 3.5 36.2% 39.2% 2.55 -7.7%

BTTS 47.2% 45.5% 2.20 +3.8%

Home O1.5 65.0% 75.2% 1.33 -13.6%

Away O1.5 12.4% 15.4% 6.50 -11.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 64% / xG 2.2-0.6 / O2.5 55% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.6%

#2 1–0✓ 13.2%

#3 3–0 10.8%

#4 1–1 8.0%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Palmeiras2.2

Chapecoense0.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PALMEIRAS · PPG 2.50

CHAPECOENSE · PPG 0.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

72%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=63.9%

Win probability 1X2

Palmeiras (H) 63.9%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -22.0%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV +14.0%

Chapecoense (A) 15.2%

ODDS 12.50 · IMPLIED 8.0% EV +54.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Palmeiras face Chapecoense in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Palmeiras a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Chapecoense 15%, so Palmeiras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Palmeiras and 0.6 for Chapecoense (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Palmeiras are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.29 for Chapecoense. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +54.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Palmeiras vs Chapecoense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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