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Patronato vs Tristan Suarez Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 19:00

Patronato

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Tristan Suarez

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-029.6%0-120.3%0-27.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.8%1-110.8%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-04.2%2-12.9%2-21.0%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.7%3-10.5%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 44.4% 2.25 -20.4%

Draw 38.1% 35.7% 2.80 +6.7%

Away win 32.6% 29.9% 3.35 +9.2%

Over 2.5 25.8% 33.9% 2.95 -14.3%

Over 3.5 12.5% 14.3% 7.00 -7.5%

BTTS 41.8% 43.5% 2.30 -3.9%

Home O1.5 10.0% 34.5% 2.90 -42.6%

Away O1.5 15.1% 25.0% 4.00 -23.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob41.8%

D 38% / xG 0.5-0.7 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 29.6%

#2 0–1 20.3%

#3 1–0 15.8%

#4 1–1✓ 10.8%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Patronato0.5

Tristan Suarez0.7

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PATRONATO · PPG 1.67

TRISTAN SUAREZ · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Patronato (H) 29.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -20.4%

Draw 38.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +6.7%

Tristan Suarez (A) 32.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Patronato face Tristan Suarez in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Patronato a 29% chance, the draw 38% and Tristan Suarez 33%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for Patronato and 0.7 for Tristan Suarez (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Patronato are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.83 for Tristan Suarez. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Patronato vs Tristan Suarez Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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