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Midland vs SM Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 19:00

Midland

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

SM Tucuman

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.5%0-114.9%0-24.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.3%1-111.4%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.7%2-14.4%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.0%3-11.1%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% 46.5% 2.15 -15.5%

Draw 36.8% 38.2% 2.62 -3.6%

Away win 23.9% 25.6% 3.90 -4.1%

Over 2.5 25.8% 32.3% 3.10 -12.0%

Over 3.5 12.5% 14.3% 7.00 -7.5%

BTTS 41.8% 42.6% 2.35 -1.8%

Home O1.5 17.9% 35.1% 2.85 -29.4%

Away O1.5 11.0% 22.2% 4.50 -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.8%

H 39% / xG 0.8-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.5%

#2 1–0 20.3%

#3 0–1 14.9%

#4 1–1 11.4%

#5 2–0✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Midland0.8

SM Tucuman0.6

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MIDLAND · PPG 2.00

SM TUCUMAN · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Midland (H) 39.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -15.5%

Draw 36.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -3.6%

SM Tucuman (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Midland face SM Tucuman in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Midland a 39% chance, the draw 37% and SM Tucuman 24%, so Midland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Midland and 0.6 for SM Tucuman (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Midland are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.33 for SM Tucuman. This match finished 2-0.

Midland vs SM Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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