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Ciudad Bolivar vs San Miguel Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 19:00

Ciudad Bolivar

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

San Miguel

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.0%0-111.1%0-22.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.9%1-110.2%1-22.2%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.0%2-14.7%2-21.0%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.4%3-11.4%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% — — —

Draw 32.9% — — —

Away win 19.9% — — —

Over 2.5 25.8% — — —

Over 3.5 12.5% — — —

BTTS 41.8% — — —

Home O1.5 23.4% — — —

Away O1.5 6.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob41.8%

H 47% / xG 0.9-0.4 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.0%

#2 1–0 23.9%

#3 1–1✓ 10.2%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 0–1 11.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ciudad Bolivar0.9

San Miguel0.4

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CIUDAD BOLIVAR · PPG 1.50

SAN MIGUEL · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=47.2%

Win probability 1X2

Ciudad Bolivar (H) 47.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

San Miguel (A) 19.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ciudad Bolivar face San Miguel in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ciudad Bolivar a 47% chance, the draw 33% and San Miguel 20%, so Ciudad Bolivar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Ciudad Bolivar and 0.4 for San Miguel (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ciudad Bolivar are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.67 for San Miguel. This match finished 1-1.

Ciudad Bolivar vs San Miguel Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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