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Atletico Mitre vs Deportivo Moron Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 19:00

Atletico Mitre

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Deportivo Moron

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.7%0-113.7%0-25.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.4%1-113.4%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.6%2-16.6%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.5%3-12.1%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% 36.4% 2.75 +5.3%

Draw 34.3% 39.2% 2.55 -12.5%

Away win 27.5% 34.5% 2.90 -12.2%

Over 2.5 34.0% 29.9% 3.35 +13.9%

Over 3.5 18.6% 12.5% 8.00 +29.3%

BTTS 46.4% 41.7% 2.40 +11.4%

Home O1.5 25.7% 27.4% 3.65 -3.7%

Away O1.5 21.6% 26.3% 3.80 -10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.4%

H 38% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.7%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.4%

#4 0–1 13.7%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Mitre1.0

Deportivo Moron0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO MITRE · PPG 1.67

DEPORTIVO MORON · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=38.3%

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Mitre (H) 38.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +5.3%

Draw 34.3%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -12.5%

Deportivo Moron (A) 27.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Mitre face Deportivo Moron in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Mitre a 38% chance, the draw 34% and Deportivo Moron 28%, so Atletico Mitre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Atletico Mitre and 0.9 for Deportivo Moron (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Mitre are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.83 for Deportivo Moron. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.3%. This match finished 1-3.

Atletico Mitre vs Deportivo Moron Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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