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Almagro vs CA Guemes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 18:30

Almagro

PPG 1.17 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

CA Guemes

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-114.0%0-26.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.5%1-113.5%1-26.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.0%2-16.5%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.2%3-12.1%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 36.4% 2.75 +1.2%

Draw 31.1% 37.0% 2.70 -16.0%

Away win 32.1% 36.4% 2.75 -11.7%

Over 2.5 40.0% 33.9% 2.95 +18.0%

Over 3.5 22.5% 15.4% 6.50 +27.8%

BTTS 47.2% 45.5% 2.20 +3.8%

Home O1.5 25.1% 29.9% 3.35 -9.6%

Away O1.5 23.8% 29.4% 3.40 -11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

D 31% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.0%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.5%

#4 0–1 14.0%

#5 2–0✓ 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almagro1.0

CA Guemes0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMAGRO · PPG 1.17

CA GUEMES · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Almagro (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +1.2%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -16.0%

CA Guemes (A) 32.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almagro face CA Guemes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almagro a 37% chance, the draw 31% and CA Guemes 32%, so Almagro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Almagro and 0.9 for CA Guemes (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almagro are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.83 for CA Guemes. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Almagro vs CA Guemes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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