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D. Madryn vs Acassuso Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 18:00

D. Madryn

PPG 1.83 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Acassuso

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.0%0-19.4%0-22.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.8%1-111.4%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.7%2-17.0%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.2%3-12.8%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 66.7% 1.50 -26.2%

Draw 30.0% 27.8% 3.60 +8.0%

Away win 20.8% 15.4% 6.50 +21.1%

Over 2.5 34.0% 43.5% 2.30 -21.8%

Over 3.5 18.6% 23.1% 4.33 -11.7%

BTTS 45.0% 43.5% 2.30 +3.5%

Home O1.5 34.5% 54.6% 1.83 -36.9%

Away O1.5 10.6% 17.4% 5.75 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.0%

H 49% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.8%

#2 0–0✓ 17.0%

#3 1–1 11.4%

#4 2–0 12.7%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Madryn1.2

Acassuso0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

D. MADRYN · PPG 1.83

ACASSUSO · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=49.2%

Win probability 1X2

D. Madryn (H) 49.2%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -26.2%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +8.0%

Acassuso (A) 20.8%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Madryn face Acassuso in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Madryn a 49% chance, the draw 30% and Acassuso 21%, so D. Madryn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for D. Madryn and 0.6 for Acassuso (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Madryn are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.57 for Acassuso. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.1%. This match finished 0-0.

D. Madryn vs Acassuso Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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