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Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 17:00

Thor Akureyri

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Stjarnan

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.9%0-27.3%0-35.2%0-4+4.5%1 1-04.3%1-19.0%1-29.6%1-36.7%1-4+5.8%2 2-02.8%2-15.9%2-26.2%2-34.4%2-4+3.8%3 3-01.2%3-12.6%3-22.7%3-31.9%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.0% 31.3% 3.20 -15.8%

Draw 22.3% 25.0% 4.00 -6.5%

Away win 54.7% 54.1% 1.85 +1.2%

Over 2.5 64.1% 75.2% 1.33 -14.8%

Over 3.5 40.5% 55.6% 1.80 -27.1%

BTTS 61.0% 76.9% 1.30 -20.7%

Home O1.5 37.4% 52.6% 1.90 -28.9%

Away O1.5 62.5% 69.0% 1.45 -9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -7.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob61.0%

A 55% / xG 1.3-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.3%

#4 1–3✓ 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Thor Akureyri1.3

Stjarnan2.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

THOR AKUREYRI · PPG 1.00

STJARNAN · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Thor Akureyri (H) 23.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.8%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.5%

Stjarnan (A) 54.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Thor Akureyri face Stjarnan in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Thor Akureyri a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Stjarnan 55%, so Stjarnan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Thor Akureyri and 2.1 for Stjarnan (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Thor Akureyri are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Stjarnan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 1-3.

Thor Akureyri vs Stjarnan Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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