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KR Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 17:00

KR Reykjavik

PPG 2.60 · HOME

5 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

KA Akureyri

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 73.1% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.5%0-21.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-04.1%1-16.4%1-25.0%1-32.6%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.3%2-26.4%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.6%3-17.1%3-25.6%3-32.9%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-18.6%4+-26.7%4+-33.5%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 69.0% 1.45 -23.3%

Draw 21.0% 20.8% 4.80 +0.5%

Away win 26.2% 20.0% 5.00 +18.6%

Over 2.5 65.8% 82.0% 1.22 -19.7%

Over 3.5 45.5% 64.5% 1.55 -29.5%

BTTS 63.4% 78.1% 1.28 -18.9%

Home O1.5 73.1% 82.0% 1.22 -10.8%

Away O1.5 46.1% 47.6% 2.10 -3.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -7.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-3

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.4%

H 53% / xG 2.6-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 1–1 6.4%

#3 3–1 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KR Reykjavik2.6

KA Akureyri1.6

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 45.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KR REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.60

KA AKUREYRI · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.60), Away EXCELLENT (2.33)

Win probability 1X2

KR Reykjavik (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -23.3%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +0.5%

KA Akureyri (A) 26.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

KR Reykjavik face KA Akureyri in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KR Reykjavik a 53% chance, the draw 21% and KA Akureyri 26%, so KR Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for KR Reykjavik and 1.6 for KA Akureyri (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KR Reykjavik are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 2.33 for KA Akureyri. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.6%. This match finished 5-3.

KR Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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