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A. Atlanta vs Gimnasia y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 16:30

A. Atlanta

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Gimnasia y Tiro

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.5%0-18.6%0-22.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.3%1-111.3%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.3%2-17.4%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.8%3-13.2%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Draw 29.2% 33.3% 3.00 -7.4%

Away win 20.3% 20.8% 4.80 -1.5%

Over 2.5 34.0% 35.1% 2.85 -3.1%

Over 3.5 18.6% 15.4% 6.50 +12.5%

BTTS 44.6% 40.8% 2.45 +9.3%

Home O1.5 37.6% 42.0% 2.38 -10.5%

Away O1.5 10.7% 19.0% 5.25 -26.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.6%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.3%

#2 0–0 15.5%

#3 2–0 13.3%

#4 1–1✓ 11.3%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Atlanta1.3

Gimnasia y Tiro0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

A. ATLANTA · PPG 2.00

GIMNASIA Y TIRO · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=50.5%

Win probability 1X2

A. Atlanta (H) 50.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -9.1%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.4%

Gimnasia y Tiro (A) 20.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Atlanta face Gimnasia y Tiro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Atlanta a 51% chance, the draw 29% and Gimnasia y Tiro 20%, so A. Atlanta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for A. Atlanta and 0.6 for Gimnasia y Tiro (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Atlanta are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Gimnasia y Tiro. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.5%. This match finished 1-1.

A. Atlanta vs Gimnasia y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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