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Ostersunds vs Orebro Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 10 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 15:00

Ostersunds

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDD

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Orebro

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWD

// Model verdict

Home 56% chance

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-18.2%0-23.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.9%1-112.1%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-19.0%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.5%3-14.5%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 57.1% 1.75 -8.6%

Draw 24.8% 26.7% 3.75 -4.2%

Away win 22.9% 22.7% 4.40 +0.5%

Over 2.5 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

Over 3.5 27.9% 32.3% 3.10 -8.1%

BTTS 51.4% 57.8% 1.73 -11.1%

Home O1.5 43.7% 56.5% 1.77 -22.7%

Away O1.5 19.6% 30.3% 3.30 -21.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 107 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.4%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 14.9%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ostersunds1.5

Orebro0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

OSTERSUNDS · PPG 2.00

OREBRO · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Ostersunds (H) 52.2%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -8.6%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.2%

Orebro (A) 22.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ostersunds face Orebro in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ostersunds a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Orebro 23%, so Ostersunds are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ostersunds and 0.8 for Orebro (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ostersunds are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Orebro. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 3-2.

Ostersunds vs Orebro Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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