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Stromsgodset B vs Lillestrom B Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Regular Season - 8 ·Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 16:00

Stromsgodset B

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Lillestrom B

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 5.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 81.9% vs bookmaker-implied 68.5% — a clear edge.

+19.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-11.0%0-21.4%0-31.4%0-4+2.0%1 1-00.9%1-12.7%1-24.0%1-33.8%1-4+5.6%2 2-01.3%2-13.8%2-25.5%2-35.3%2-4+7.8%3 3-01.2%3-13.6%3-25.2%3-35.0%3-4+7.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-14.9%4+-27.1%4+-36.9%4+-4+10.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 58.8% 1.70 -32.0%

Draw 20.7% 22.2% 4.50 -4.1%

Away win 39.3% 30.3% 3.30 +29.7%

Over 2.5 79.0% 87.7% 1.14 -9.9%

Over 3.5 81.9% 68.5% 1.46 +19.6%

BTTS 66.7% 84.0% 1.19 -20.6%

Home O1.5 76.8% 79.4% 1.26 -3.2%

Away O1.5 78.4% 57.5% 1.74 +36.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 20%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob66.7%

A 39% / xG 2.8-2.9 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 5.5%

#2 2–3 5.3%

#3 3–2 5.2%

#4 3–3 5.0%

#5 1–2 4.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stromsgodset B2.8

Lillestrom B2.9

COMBINED 5.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 81.9%

Form & verdict PPG

STROMSGODSET B · PPG 1.75

LILLESTROM B · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Stromsgodset B (H) 40.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -32.0%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -4.1%

Lillestrom B (A) 39.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +29.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stromsgodset B face Lillestrom B in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stromsgodset B a 40% chance, the draw 21% and Lillestrom B 39%, so Stromsgodset B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Stromsgodset B and 2.9 for Lillestrom B (5.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stromsgodset B are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.00 for Lillestrom B. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +36.4%. This match finished 1-3.

Stromsgodset B vs Lillestrom B Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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