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Skedsmo vs Fauske Sprint Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 09:30

Skedsmo

PPG 2.14 · HOME

5 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Fauske Sprint

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.24 for Home, form 2.14 vs 1.57 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-10.9%0-20.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.3%1-13.2%1-22.3%1-31.1%1-4+0.5%2 2-04.2%2-15.9%2-24.2%2-32.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.1%3-17.2%3-25.1%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-012.0%4+-117.1%4+-212.1%4+-35.7%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.8% 84.7% 1.18 -21.2%

Draw 16.6% 14.3% 7.00 +9.7%

Away win 16.6% 12.5% 8.00 +19.7%

Over 2.5 75.0% 83.3% 1.20 -10.0%

Over 3.5 54.1% 66.7% 1.50 -18.9%

BTTS 64.3% 70.4% 1.42 -8.7%

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 43.7% 35.7% 2.80 +22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 86%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 19%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-3

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.3%

H 67% / xG 3.7-1.4 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.2%

#2 4–1 6.6%

#3 2–1 5.9%

#4 3–2 5.1%

#5 3–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skedsmo3.7

Fauske Sprint1.4

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.0% · O3.5 PROB 54.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SKEDSMO · PPG 2.14

FAUSKE SPRINT · PPG 1.57

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.24 for Home, form 2.14 vs 1.57 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Skedsmo (H) 66.8%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -21.2%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +9.7%

Fauske Sprint (A) 16.6%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skedsmo face Fauske Sprint in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skedsmo a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Fauske Sprint 17%, so Skedsmo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for Skedsmo and 1.4 for Fauske Sprint (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skedsmo are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.57 for Fauske Sprint. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +22.4%. This match finished 5-3.

Skedsmo vs Fauske Sprint Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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