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Lillestrom B vs Alta Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 11:00

Lillestrom B

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Alta

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.7%0-22.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.5%1-18.2%1-26.0%1-33.0%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.1%2-19.0%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.5%3-16.7%3-24.9%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-16.2%4+-24.6%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 54.1% 1.85 -2.3%

Draw 22.1% 24.4% 4.10 -5.6%

Away win 25.1% 33.3% 3.00 -14.8%

Over 2.5 65.8% 82.0% 1.22 -19.7%

Over 3.5 43.1% 64.5% 1.55 -33.2%

BTTS 63.4% 82.0% 1.22 -22.7%

Home O1.5 64.8% 75.8% 1.32 -14.5%

Away O1.5 43.4% 58.5% 1.71 -25.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 20%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.4%

H 53% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lillestrom B2.2

Alta1.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LILLESTROM B · PPG 1.50

ALTA · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=52.8%

Win probability 1X2

Lillestrom B (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -2.3%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.6%

Alta (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lillestrom B face Alta in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lillestrom B a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Alta 25%, so Lillestrom B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Lillestrom B and 1.5 for Alta (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lillestrom B are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.50 for Alta. This match finished 2-4.

Lillestrom B vs Alta Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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