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Kongsvinger II vs Strømsgodset II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Matchday 15 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 14:00

Kongsvinger II

PPG 1.33 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Strømsgodset II

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.9%0-22.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-04.6%1-17.1%1-25.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.5%2-18.6%2-26.7%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.4%3-16.9%3-25.4%3-32.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-17.4%4+-25.7%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 63.7% 1.57 -16.3%

Draw 21.8% 21.1% 4.75 +2.1%

Away win 24.9% 26.7% 3.75 -4.0%

Over 2.5 67.4% 83.3% 1.20 -19.1%

Over 3.5 47.2% 69.4% 1.44 -32.0%

BTTS 63.3% 82.6% 1.21 -23.4%

Home O1.5 63.0% 79.4% 1.26 -20.6%

Away O1.5 47.3% 53.8% 1.86 -12.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 86%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 19%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.3%

H 53% / xG 2.4-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 1–1 7.1%

#3 3–1 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 1–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kongsvinger II2.4

Strømsgodset II1.6

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KONGSVINGER II · PPG 1.33

STRØMSGODSET II · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kongsvinger II (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -16.3%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +2.1%

Strømsgodset II (A) 24.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kongsvinger II face Strømsgodset II in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kongsvinger II a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Strømsgodset II 25%, so Kongsvinger II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Kongsvinger II and 1.6 for Strømsgodset II (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kongsvinger II are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Strømsgodset II. This match finished 2-3.

Kongsvinger II vs Strømsgodset II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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