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Lillestrøm II vs Kongsvinger II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Matchday 14 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 14:00

Lillestrøm II

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kongsvinger II

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.8%0-20.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-01.8%1-12.9%1-22.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-03.3%2-15.4%2-24.4%2-32.4%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.1%3-16.7%3-25.4%3-33.0%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-09.8%4+-116.1%4+-213.1%4+-37.2%4+-4+4.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.3% — — —

Draw 16.7% — — —

Away win 19.0% — — —

Over 2.5 80.6% — — —

Over 3.5 62.5% — — —

BTTS 70.3% — — —

Home O1.5 77.3% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 88%

BTTS 80%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob70.3%

H 64% / xG 3.7-1.6 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.7%

#2 4–1 6.2%

#3 3–2 5.4%

#4 2–1 5.4%

#5 4–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lillestrøm II3.7

Kongsvinger II1.6

COMBINED 5.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.6% · O3.5 PROB 62.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LILLESTRØM II · PPG 1.71

KONGSVINGER II · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.06 for Home, form 1.71 vs 1.29 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Lillestrøm II (H) 64.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kongsvinger II (A) 19.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lillestrøm II face Kongsvinger II in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lillestrøm II a 64% chance, the draw 17% and Kongsvinger II 19%, so Lillestrøm II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for Lillestrøm II and 1.6 for Kongsvinger II (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lillestrøm II are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.29 for Kongsvinger II.

Lillestrøm II vs Kongsvinger II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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