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Skjetten vs Lillestrøm II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Matchday 15 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 17:00

Skjetten

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lillestrøm II

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 82.1% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.2%0-21.5%0-31.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-01.4%1-13.4%1-24.2%1-33.5%1-4+3.9%2 2-02.0%2-14.8%2-26.0%2-35.0%2-4+5.6%3 3-01.9%3-14.6%3-25.7%3-34.8%3-4+5.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-16.6%4+-28.3%4+-36.8%4+-4+7.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 54.1% 1.85 -11.6%

Draw 19.1% 22.2% 4.50 -8.4%

Away win 33.0% 35.7% 2.80 -7.6%

Over 2.5 82.1% 87.7% 1.14 -6.4%

Over 3.5 64.6% 74.1% 1.35 -12.8%

BTTS 70.3% 87.0% 1.15 -19.2%

Home O1.5 78.6% 79.4% 1.26 -1.0%

Away O1.5 64.9% 63.3% 1.58 +2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 86%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 19%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob70.3%

H 48% / xG 2.9-2.5 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.0%

#2 3–2 5.7%

#3 2–3 5.0%

#4 2–1✓ 4.8%

#5 3–3 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skjetten2.9

Lillestrøm II2.5

COMBINED 5.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.1% · O3.5 PROB 64.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SKJETTEN · PPG 1.00

LILLESTRØM II · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Skjetten (H) 47.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -11.6%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -8.4%

Lillestrøm II (A) 33.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skjetten face Lillestrøm II in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skjetten a 48% chance, the draw 19% and Lillestrøm II 33%, so Skjetten are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Skjetten and 2.5 for Lillestrøm II (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skjetten are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Lillestrøm II. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Skjetten vs Lillestrøm II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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