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Lillestrøm II vs Harstad Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:00

Lillestrøm II

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Harstad

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.3%0-21.5%0-31.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-01.6%1-13.7%1-24.3%1-33.4%1-4+3.5%2 2-02.2%2-15.2%2-26.2%2-34.9%2-4+5.0%3 3-02.1%3-15.0%3-25.9%3-34.6%3-4+4.7%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-17.1%4+-28.4%4+-36.6%4+-4+6.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% — — —

Draw 17.5% — — —

Away win 29.4% — — —

Over 2.5 82.1% — — —

Over 3.5 64.7% — — —

BTTS 70.3% — — —

Home O1.5 76.5% — — —

Away O1.5 64.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 86%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 19%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob70.3%

H 53% / xG 2.9-2.4 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.2%

#2 3–2 5.9%

#3 2–1 5.2%

#4 3–1 5.0%

#5 2–3 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lillestrøm II2.9

Harstad2.4

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.1% · O3.5 PROB 64.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LILLESTRØM II · PPG 1.50

HARSTAD · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lillestrøm II (H) 53.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Harstad (A) 29.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lillestrøm II face Harstad in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lillestrøm II a 53% chance, the draw 18% and Harstad 29%, so Lillestrøm II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Lillestrøm II and 2.4 for Harstad (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lillestrøm II are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Harstad.

Lillestrøm II vs Harstad Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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