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Sao Bernardo vs Novorizontino Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 11 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 14:00

Sao Bernardo

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Novorizontino

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-111.6%0-24.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.1%1-113.0%1-24.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.6%2-17.3%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.6%3-12.7%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 36.8% 2.72 +20.0%

Draw 31.9% 34.2% 2.92 -6.9%

Away win 24.1% 36.2% 2.76 -20.1%

Over 2.5 34.0% 40.8% 2.45 -16.7%

Over 3.5 18.6% 21.1% 4.75 -7.0%

BTTS 47.2% 51.3% 1.95 -8.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 33.9% 2.95 -8.8%

Away O1.5 17.6% 33.3% 3.00 -28.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.3%

#2 1–0 17.1%

#3 1–1✓ 13.0%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 0–1 11.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sao Bernardo1.1

Novorizontino0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SAO BERNARDO · PPG 1.40

NOVORIZONTINO · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

47%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Sao Bernardo (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV +20.0%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -6.9%

Novorizontino (A) 24.1%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV -20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sao Bernardo face Novorizontino in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sao Bernardo a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Novorizontino 24%, so Sao Bernardo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sao Bernardo and 0.8 for Novorizontino (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sao Bernardo are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.20 for Novorizontino. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Sao Bernardo vs Novorizontino Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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