Today / Brazil - Serie B / Londrina vs Vila Nova

Londrina vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 11 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 14:00

Londrina

PPG 0.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vila Nova

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-111.2%0-29.6%0-35.4%0-4+3.4%1 1-06.7%1-111.4%1-29.7%1-35.5%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.4%2-15.8%2-24.9%2-32.8%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.2%3-12.0%3-21.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.3% 44.6% 2.24 -28.7%

Draw 26.5% 31.7% 3.15 -9.9%

Away win 50.1% 30.8% 3.25 +62.8%

Over 2.5 54.5% 45.5% 2.20 +19.9%

Over 3.5 32.2% 23.8% 4.20 +35.2%

BTTS 55.3% 54.1% 1.85 +2.3%

Home O1.5 27.1% 42.0% 2.38 -21.3%

Away O1.5 50.7% 31.3% 3.20 +62.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.3%

A 50% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 9.6%

#4 0–1✓ 11.2%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Londrina1.0

Vila Nova1.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LONDRINA · PPG 0.50

VILA NOVA · PPG 1.60

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

54%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Londrina (H) 23.3%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -28.7%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -9.9%

Vila Nova (A) 50.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +62.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Londrina face Vila Nova in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Londrina a 23% chance, the draw 27% and Vila Nova 50%, so Vila Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Londrina and 1.7 for Vila Nova (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Londrina are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.60 for Vila Nova. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +88.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Londrina vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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