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Varnamo vs United Nordic Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 10 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 13:00

Varnamo

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

United Nordic

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+15.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.8%0-23.5%0-32.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-04.1%1-17.7%1-27.2%1-34.5%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.2%2-17.8%2-27.3%2-34.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-02.8%3-15.3%3-24.9%3-33.1%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-14.3%4+-24.0%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 41.7% 2.40 +3.0%

Draw 22.0% 27.8% 3.60 -12.5%

Away win 35.1% 37.7% 2.65 -7.0%

Over 2.5 65.8% 57.1% 1.75 +15.2%

Over 3.5 43.1% 35.1% 2.85 +22.8%

BTTS 63.4% 63.7% 1.57 -0.5%

Home O1.5 60.3% 47.6% 2.10 +26.6%

Away O1.5 55.7% 44.4% 2.25 +25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 107 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.4%

H 43% / xG 2.0-1.9 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 7.8%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 1–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varnamo2.0

United Nordic1.9

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VARNAMO · PPG 1.75

UNITED NORDIC · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Varnamo (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +3.0%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.5%

United Nordic (A) 35.1%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Varnamo face United Nordic in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varnamo a 43% chance, the draw 22% and United Nordic 35%, so Varnamo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Varnamo and 1.9 for United Nordic (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varnamo are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for United Nordic. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +26.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Varnamo vs United Nordic Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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