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Honefoss vs Lorenskog Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 12:00

Honefoss

PPG 2.25 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lorenskog

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.2%0-23.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.1%1-110.9%1-26.6%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.6%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.7%3-15.7%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.7%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 54.1% 1.85 -8.6%

Draw 24.2% 25.3% 3.95 -2.6%

Away win 26.3% 31.3% 3.20 -9.5%

Over 2.5 60.1% 70.4% 1.42 -14.7%

Over 3.5 36.2% 48.8% 2.05 -25.8%

BTTS 61.0% 71.4% 1.40 -14.6%

Home O1.5 52.6% 64.5% 1.55 -18.5%

Away O1.5 34.0% 47.6% 2.10 -28.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.0%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Honefoss1.8

Lorenskog1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HONEFOSS · PPG 2.25

LORENSKOG · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Honefoss (H) 49.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -8.6%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -2.6%

Lorenskog (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Honefoss face Lorenskog in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Honefoss a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Lorenskog 26%, so Honefoss are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Honefoss and 1.2 for Lorenskog (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Honefoss are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.75 for Lorenskog. This match finished 1-1.

Honefoss vs Lorenskog Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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