Today / Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 / Hønefoss vs Follo

Hønefoss vs Follo Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 12:00

Hønefoss

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Follo

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.1%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.9%1-13.9%1-22.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-06.9%2-16.8%2-23.4%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.0%3-18.0%3-24.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-017.0%4+-117.0%4+-28.5%4+-32.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.8% 80.0% 1.25 -5.3%

Draw 15.6% 17.2% 5.80 -5.7%

Away win 8.6% 13.5% 7.40 -21.8%

Over 2.5 76.6% 80.0% 1.25 -4.3%

Over 3.5 56.2% 65.4% 1.53 -14.0%

BTTS 61.8% 71.4% 1.40 -13.5%

Home O1.5 77.3% 87.0% 1.15 -11.1%

Away O1.5 30.7% 37.7% 2.65 -18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.8%

H 76% / xG 3.5-1.0 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.0%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 4–0 6.9%

#4 4–1 6.9%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hønefoss3.5

Follo1.0

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.6% · O3.5 PROB 56.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HØNEFOSS · PPG 2.38

FOLLO · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.49 for Home, form 2.38 vs 0.86 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Hønefoss (H) 75.8%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -5.3%

Draw 15.6%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -5.7%

Follo (A) 8.6%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hønefoss face Follo in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hønefoss a 76% chance, the draw 16% and Follo 9%, so Hønefoss are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Hønefoss and 1.0 for Follo (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hønefoss are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.86 for Follo. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +4.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Hønefoss vs Follo Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 Predictions