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Ull/Kisa vs Trygg/Lade Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 12:00

Ull/Kisa

PPG 0.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Trygg/Lade

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.4%0-22.4%0-31.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-03.0%1-15.9%1-25.8%1-33.8%1-4+2.9%2 2-03.7%2-17.2%2-27.0%2-34.6%2-4+3.5%3 3-03.0%3-15.8%3-25.7%3-33.7%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-16.3%4+-26.2%4+-34.0%4+-4+3.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% — — —

Draw 21.8% — — —

Away win 29.2% — — —

Over 2.5 71.6% — — —

Over 3.5 52.1% — — —

BTTS 69.4% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 53.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.4%

H 49% / xG 2.4-2.0 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.2%

#2 2–2 7.0%

#3 1–1 5.9%

#4 3–1 5.8%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ull/Kisa2.4

Trygg/Lade2.0

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ULL/KISA · PPG 0.86

TRYGG/LADE · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ull/Kisa (H) 49.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Trygg/Lade (A) 29.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ull/Kisa face Trygg/Lade in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ull/Kisa a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Trygg/Lade 29%, so Ull/Kisa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Ull/Kisa and 2.0 for Trygg/Lade (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ull/Kisa are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.38 for Trygg/Lade.

Ull/Kisa vs Trygg/Lade Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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