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Skeid vs Kjelsås Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Skeid

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLD

UPCOMING

Kjelsås

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5 64% chance

Model probability 69.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+12.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-16.0%0-26.9%0-35.3%0-4+5.2%1 1-03.5%1-18.1%1-29.3%1-37.1%1-4+7.0%2 2-02.4%2-15.4%2-26.3%2-34.8%2-4+4.7%3 3-01.1%3-12.4%3-22.8%3-32.2%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.1%4+-21.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.8% 25.0% 4.00 -5.3%

Draw 20.0% 28.6% 3.50 -18.0%

Away win 57.1% 58.8% 1.70 -2.9%

Over 2.5 65.8% 63.7% 1.57 +3.3%

Over 3.5 44.9% 42.0% 2.38 +6.9%

BTTS 61.5% 64.5% 1.55 -4.7%

Home O1.5 39.5% 36.4% 2.75 +8.6%

Away O1.5 69.2% 61.7% 1.62 +12.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob61.5%

A 57% / xG 1.3-2.3 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.3%

#2 1–1 8.1%

#3 1–3 7.1%

#4 0–2 6.9%

#5 2–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skeid1.3

Kjelsås2.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SKEID · PPG 1.25

KJELSÅS · PPG 2.38

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

DANGER

xG gap -0.95 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Skeid (H) 22.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.3%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -18.0%

Kjelsås (A) 57.1%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skeid face Kjelsås in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skeid a 23% chance, the draw 20% and Kjelsås 57%, so Kjelsås are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Skeid and 2.3 for Kjelsås (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skeid are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.38 for Kjelsås. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +21.2%.

Skeid vs Kjelsås Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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