Today / Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 / Rana vs Follo

Rana vs Follo Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Matchday 11 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 13:00

Rana

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDW

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Follo

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.6%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.7%1-16.9%1-24.2%1-31.7%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.4%2-19.0%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.5%3-17.9%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-19.6%4+-25.9%4+-32.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.9% 61.0% 1.64 +1.5%

Draw 18.1% 25.1% 3.98 -16.8%

Away win 20.0% 25.3% 3.96 -12.5%

Over 2.5 68.2% 75.2% 1.33 -9.3%

Over 3.5 48.1% 52.6% 1.90 -8.6%

BTTS 63.1% 73.0% 1.37 -13.6%

Home O1.5 65.8% 69.9% 1.43 -5.9%

Away O1.5 36.6% 44.1% 2.27 -16.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.1%

H 62% / xG 2.6-1.2 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 3–1 7.9%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 3–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rana2.6

Follo1.2

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RANA · PPG 1.43

FOLLO · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.40 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rana (H) 61.9%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +1.5%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 3.98 · IMPLIED 25.1% EV -16.8%

Follo (A) 20.0%

ODDS 3.96 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rana face Follo in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rana a 62% chance, the draw 18% and Follo 20%, so Rana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Rana and 1.2 for Follo (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rana are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.83 for Follo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.3%. This match finished 3-3.

Rana vs Follo Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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