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Trygg/Lade vs Skeid Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

Trygg/Lade

PPG 0.57 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Skeid

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.9%0-24.5%0-32.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.6%1-110.1%1-27.8%1-34.0%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.7%2-18.8%2-26.7%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.3%3-15.0%3-23.9%3-32.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.2%4+-22.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% 36.4% 2.75 +29.8%

Draw 23.1% 27.4% 3.65 -9.4%

Away win 29.8% 45.5% 2.20 -20.7%

Over 2.5 62.4% 67.6% 1.48 -7.6%

Over 3.5 39.3% 45.5% 2.20 -13.5%

BTTS 60.8% 70.4% 1.42 -13.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 50.0% 2.00 -2.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 57.1% 1.75 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.8%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.1%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–0 5.7%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trygg/Lade1.7

Skeid1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TRYGG/LADE · PPG 0.57

SKEID · PPG 0.38

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Trygg/Lade (H) 47.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +29.8%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.4%

Skeid (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -20.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trygg/Lade face Skeid in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trygg/Lade a 47% chance, the draw 23% and Skeid 30%, so Trygg/Lade are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Trygg/Lade and 1.5 for Skeid (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trygg/Lade are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 0.38 for Skeid. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Trygg/Lade vs Skeid Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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