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Follo vs Tromsdalen Uil Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Follo

PPG 0.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

UPCOMING

Tromsdalen Uil

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-16.6%0-25.7%0-33.2%0-4+2.0%1 1-05.9%1-110.2%1-28.7%1-35.0%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.6%2-17.9%2-26.7%2-33.8%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.4%3-14.0%3-23.5%3-32.0%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.2%4+-21.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 28.6% 3.50 +22.1%

Draw 23.1% 26.7% 3.75 -8.0%

Away win 41.9% 57.1% 1.75 -26.7%

Over 2.5 63.7% 71.4% 1.40 -10.8%

Over 3.5 40.5% 52.4% 1.91 -22.6%

BTTS 63.3% 71.4% 1.40 -11.4%

Home O1.5 43.5% 45.5% 2.20 -4.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 66.7% 1.50 -28.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.3%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Follo1.5

Tromsdalen Uil1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FOLLO · PPG 0.44

TROMSDALEN UIL · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

69%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Follo (H) 34.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +22.1%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -8.0%

Tromsdalen Uil (A) 41.9%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Follo face Tromsdalen Uil in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Follo a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Tromsdalen Uil 42%, so Tromsdalen Uil are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Follo and 1.7 for Tromsdalen Uil (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Follo are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 1.43 for Tromsdalen Uil. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.8%.

Follo vs Tromsdalen Uil Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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