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Grorud vs Trygg.Lade Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 11:00

Grorud

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Trygg.Lade

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.9% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.7%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.5%1-18.5%1-24.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.7%2-19.8%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.5%3-17.5%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-17.4%4+-23.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.1% 78.1% 1.28 -26.9%

Draw 21.5% 20.0% 5.00 +4.5%

Away win 21.4% 12.5% 8.00 +42.7%

Over 2.5 64.1% 74.1% 1.35 -13.5%

Over 3.5 41.0% 54.1% 1.85 -24.1%

BTTS 61.0% 64.5% 1.55 -5.5%

Home O1.5 66.9% 80.0% 1.25 -16.4%

Away O1.5 26.5% 30.8% 3.25 -8.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.0%

H 57% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1✓ 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grorud2.3

Trygg.Lade1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GRORUD · PPG 1.75

TRYGG.LADE · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Grorud (H) 57.1%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -26.9%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +4.5%

Trygg.Lade (A) 21.4%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +42.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grorud face Trygg.Lade in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grorud a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Trygg.Lade 21%, so Grorud are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Grorud and 1.0 for Trygg.Lade (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grorud are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.00 for Trygg.Lade. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +42.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Grorud vs Trygg.Lade Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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