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Charlestown A. vs Weston Bears Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Sunday, May 31, 2026, 05:00

Charlestown A.

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Weston Bears

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-16.2%0-26.9%0-35.1%0-4+4.8%1 1-03.8%1-18.4%1-29.3%1-36.9%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.6%2-15.7%2-26.3%2-34.7%2-4+4.4%3 3-01.2%3-12.6%3-22.9%3-32.1%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.2%4+-21.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.7% 32.3% 3.10 -10.3%

Draw 21.5% 25.0% 4.00 -8.4%

Away win 51.8% 54.6% 1.83 -5.2%

Over 2.5 65.4% 66.7% 1.50 -1.9%

Over 3.5 43.1% 50.0% 2.00 -13.8%

BTTS 63.4% 73.0% 1.37 -13.1%

Home O1.5 39.3% 46.7% 2.14 -15.9%

Away O1.5 65.2% 65.8% 1.52 -0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob63.4%

A 52% / xG 1.4-2.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 1–3 6.9%

#4 0–2 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlestown A.1.4

Weston Bears2.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLESTOWN A. · PPG 1.20

WESTON BEARS · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Charlestown A. (H) 26.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.3%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.4%

Weston Bears (A) 51.8%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlestown A. face Weston Bears in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlestown A. a 27% chance, the draw 22% and Weston Bears 52%, so Weston Bears are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Charlestown A. and 2.2 for Weston Bears (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlestown A. are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 3.00 for Weston Bears. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +1.6%.

Charlestown A. vs Weston Bears Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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