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Clarence Zebras vs South East Utd Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 04:30

Clarence Zebras

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

South East Utd

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 89.4% vs bookmaker-implied 82.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-10.8%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.2%1-12.9%1-22.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.4%2 2-04.2%2-15.6%2-23.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.3%3-17.1%3-24.8%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-013.8%4+-118.6%4+-212.5%4+-35.6%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% 76.9% 1.30 -19.4%

Draw 19.4% 19.2% 5.20 +0.5%

Away win 18.6% 16.1% 6.20 +9.2%

Over 2.5 80.0% 78.1% 1.28 +2.4%

Over 3.5 58.6% 64.5% 1.55 -9.2%

BTTS 63.4% 69.4% 1.44 -8.7%

Home O1.5 89.4% 82.6% 1.21 +8.2%

Away O1.5 39.0% 35.7% 2.80 +9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.4%

H 62% / xG 3.8-1.3 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.1%

#2 4–1 6.8%

#3 2–1✓ 5.6%

#4 3–0 5.3%

#5 5–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Clarence Zebras3.8

South East Utd1.3

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.0% · O3.5 PROB 58.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CLARENCE ZEBRAS · PPG 1.50

SOUTH EAST UTD · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=62.0%

Win probability 1X2

Clarence Zebras (H) 62.0%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -19.4%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +0.5%

South East Utd (A) 18.6%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Clarence Zebras face South East Utd in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Clarence Zebras a 62% chance, the draw 19% and South East Utd 19%, so Clarence Zebras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Clarence Zebras and 1.3 for South East Utd (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Clarence Zebras are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.60 for South East Utd. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +19.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Clarence Zebras vs South East Utd Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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