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Magic United vs Q. Lions Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 04:30

Magic United

PPG 0.50 · HOME

3 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Q. Lions

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 91.9% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-13.0%0-26.1%0-38.5%0-4+26.9%1 1-00.6%1-12.3%1-24.9%1-36.7%1-4+21.4%2 2-00.2%2-10.9%2-21.9%2-32.7%2-4+8.5%3 3-00.1%3-10.2%3-20.5%3-30.7%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.8% 7.7% 13.00 +16.4%

Draw 21.2% 14.3% 7.00 +29.0%

Away win 69.0% 87.7% 1.14 -21.3%

Over 2.5 72.7% 82.0% 1.22 -11.3%

Over 3.5 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

BTTS 55.3% 61.7% 1.62 -10.4%

Home O1.5 18.9% 26.0% 3.85 -16.3%

Away O1.5 91.9% 85.5% 1.17 +7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-5

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)4.1 BTTS prob55.3%

A 69% / xG 0.8-4.1 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–4 8.8%

#2 0–3 8.5%

#3 0–5 7.3%

#4 1–4 7.0%

#5 1–3 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magic United0.8

Q. Lions4.1

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGIC UNITED · PPG 0.50

Q. LIONS · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Magic United (H) 9.8%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +16.4%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +29.0%

Q. Lions (A) 69.0%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Magic United face Q. Lions in Australia - Queensland NPL on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magic United a 10% chance, the draw 21% and Q. Lions 69%, so Q. Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Magic United and 4.1 for Q. Lions (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-4. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magic United are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Q. Lions. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +29.0%. This match finished 3-5.

Magic United vs Q. Lions Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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