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Broadmeadow vs Lambton Jaffas Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 03:00

Broadmeadow

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Lambton Jaffas

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.9%0-22.5%0-31.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-03.8%1-16.7%1-26.0%1-33.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.5%2-17.9%2-27.0%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.5%3-16.2%3-25.5%3-33.3%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-16.4%4+-25.6%4+-33.3%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 54.1% 1.85 -6.6%

Draw 21.4% 27.8% 3.60 -13.8%

Away win 28.1% 29.4% 3.40 -2.7%

Over 2.5 68.1% 71.4% 1.40 -4.7%

Over 3.5 45.5% 52.6% 1.90 -13.6%

BTTS 63.4% 71.4% 1.40 -11.2%

Home O1.5 68.1% 67.6% 1.48 +0.8%

Away O1.5 52.8% 47.4% 2.11 +11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.4%

H 50% / xG 2.4-1.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 7.9%

#2 1–1 6.7%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.2%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Broadmeadow2.4

Lambton Jaffas1.8

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 45.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BROADMEADOW · PPG 2.00

LAMBTON JAFFAS · PPG 2.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

Broadmeadow (H) 50.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -6.6%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -13.8%

Lambton Jaffas (A) 28.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Broadmeadow face Lambton Jaffas in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Broadmeadow a 51% chance, the draw 21% and Lambton Jaffas 28%, so Broadmeadow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Broadmeadow and 1.8 for Lambton Jaffas (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Broadmeadow are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.25 for Lambton Jaffas. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +11.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Broadmeadow vs Lambton Jaffas Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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