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Sport Recife vs Nautico Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 23:30

Sport Recife

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Nautico

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-113.7%0-26.6%0-32.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.9%1-113.5%1-26.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.9%2-16.7%2-23.3%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.3%3-12.2%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 43.1% 2.32 -18.6%

Draw 29.7% 32.8% 3.05 -5.7%

Away win 35.3% 30.8% 3.25 +14.7%

Over 2.5 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Over 3.5 27.7% 29.0% 3.45 -2.7%

BTTS 47.2% 58.8% 1.70 -19.8%

Home O1.5 26.1% 44.4% 2.25 -24.8%

Away O1.5 25.4% 35.7% 2.80 -17.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.2%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.0%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 13.9%

#4 0–1 13.7%

#5 2–0✓ 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sport Recife1.0

Nautico1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORT RECIFE · PPG 1.60

NAUTICO · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

47%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.60) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Sport Recife (H) 35.1%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -18.6%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -5.7%

Nautico (A) 35.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sport Recife face Nautico in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sport Recife a 35% chance, the draw 30% and Nautico 35%, so Nautico are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sport Recife and 1.0 for Nautico (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sport Recife are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.00 for Nautico. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Sport Recife vs Nautico Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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