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Pittsburgh vs Miami FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 23:00

Pittsburgh

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Miami FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.1%0-24.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.7%1-112.2%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.2%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.0%3-14.6%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 59.9% 1.67 -24.5%

Draw 26.4% 27.4% 3.65 -2.2%

Away win 28.4% 22.7% 4.40 +15.0%

Over 2.5 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Over 3.5 31.8% 31.3% 3.20 +1.8%

BTTS 55.3% 55.6% 1.80 -0.5%

Home O1.5 44.3% 57.1% 1.75 -22.5%

Away O1.5 31.4% 28.6% 3.50 +9.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.3%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 0–0 7.1%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 2–0✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pittsburgh1.5

Miami FC1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PITTSBURGH · PPG 2.00

MIAMI FC · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=45.2%

Win probability 1X2

Pittsburgh (H) 45.2%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -24.5%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -2.2%

Miami FC (A) 28.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pittsburgh face Miami FC in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pittsburgh a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Miami FC 28%, so Pittsburgh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Pittsburgh and 1.1 for Miami FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pittsburgh are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Miami FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +21.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Pittsburgh vs Miami FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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