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Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 23:00

Louisville City

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLD

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Tampa Bay

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-114.0%0-210.4%0-35.1%0-4+2.6%1 1-08.3%1-112.3%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-03.6%2-15.4%2-24.0%2-32.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.1%3-11.6%3-21.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.6% 54.1% 1.85 -34.9%

Draw 26.5% 28.6% 3.50 -4.3%

Away win 50.9% 28.2% 3.55 +80.7%

Over 2.5 48.5% 56.5% 1.77 -14.2%

Over 3.5 27.9% 33.9% 2.95 -10.6%

BTTS 51.5% 60.6% 1.65 -15.0%

Home O1.5 21.8% 54.6% 1.83 -36.1%

Away O1.5 43.6% 35.7% 2.80 +22.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 154 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob51.5%

A 51% / xG 0.9-1.5 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 14.0%

#3 0–0 9.5%

#4 0–2✓ 10.4%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Louisville City0.9

Tampa Bay1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LOUISVILLE CITY · PPG 1.80

TAMPA BAY · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

58%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.80) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.20)

Win probability 1X2

Louisville City (H) 22.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -34.9%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.3%

Tampa Bay (A) 50.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +80.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Louisville City face Tampa Bay in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Louisville City a 23% chance, the draw 27% and Tampa Bay 51%, so Tampa Bay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Louisville City and 1.5 for Tampa Bay (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Louisville City are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.20 for Tampa Bay. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +80.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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