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Indy Eleven vs Rhode Island Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 23:00

Indy Eleven

PPG 2.60 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Rhode Island

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.7%0-23.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.0%1-19.5%1-26.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.5%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.7%3-16.3%3-24.3%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-15.0%4+-23.4%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 39.2% 2.55 +27.8%

Draw 22.7% 29.0% 3.45 -13.0%

Away win 27.2% 41.7% 2.40 -20.8%

Over 2.5 64.1% 58.8% 1.70 +9.0%

Over 3.5 40.5% 36.4% 2.75 +11.4%

BTTS 61.0% 64.5% 1.55 -5.5%

Home O1.5 59.5% 46.5% 2.15 +27.9%

Away O1.5 38.9% 47.6% 2.10 -18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.0%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Indy Eleven2.0

Rhode Island1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

INDY ELEVEN · PPG 2.60

RHODE ISLAND · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs P(Home)=50.1%

Win probability 1X2

Indy Eleven (H) 50.1%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +27.8%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.0%

Rhode Island (A) 27.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Indy Eleven face Rhode Island in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Indy Eleven a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Rhode Island 27%, so Indy Eleven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Indy Eleven and 1.3 for Rhode Island (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Indy Eleven are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.00 for Rhode Island. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +54.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Indy Eleven vs Rhode Island Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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