Today / USA - USL Championship / Hartford A. vs New Mexico

Hartford A. vs New Mexico Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 23:00

Hartford A.

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

New Mexico

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-112.3%0-25.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.6%1-113.4%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.9%2-17.3%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.9%3-12.7%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 54.1% 1.85 -30.4%

Draw 30.8% 28.6% 3.50 +7.8%

Away win 31.6% 28.2% 3.55 +12.2%

Over 2.5 36.5% 58.8% 1.70 -38.0%

Over 3.5 22.5% 37.0% 2.70 -23.5%

BTTS 47.2% 63.7% 1.57 -25.9%

Home O1.5 29.7% 55.6% 1.80 -27.9%

Away O1.5 23.6% 37.7% 2.65 -22.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

D 31% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0✓ 13.4%

#3 1–0 14.6%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hartford A.1.1

New Mexico0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HARTFORD A. · PPG 1.25

NEW MEXICO · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Hartford A. (H) 37.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -30.4%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +7.8%

New Mexico (A) 31.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hartford A. face New Mexico in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hartford A. a 38% chance, the draw 31% and New Mexico 32%, so Hartford A. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Hartford A. and 0.9 for New Mexico (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hartford A. are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.75 for New Mexico. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Hartford A. vs New Mexico Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions