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Santos vs Vitoria Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 23:00

Santos

PPG 1.56 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Vitoria

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.7%0-24.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.8%1-112.0%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.4%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.4%3-14.9%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 54.6% 1.83 -16.6%

Draw 25.8% 29.4% 3.40 -7.4%

Away win 28.7% 23.1% 4.33 +14.6%

Over 2.5 54.5% 50.0% 2.00 +9.0%

Over 3.5 32.2% 27.8% 3.60 +15.9%

BTTS 55.3% 54.1% 1.85 +2.3%

Home O1.5 46.2% 51.3% 1.95 -9.9%

Away O1.5 30.3% 28.2% 3.55 +7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.3%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 0–0 7.0%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santos1.6

Vitoria1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTOS · PPG 1.56

VITORIA · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.56) vs P(Home)=45.6%

Win probability 1X2

Santos (H) 45.6%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -16.6%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.4%

Vitoria (A) 28.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santos face Vitoria in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santos a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Vitoria 29%, so Santos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Santos and 1.1 for Vitoria (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santos are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.38 for Vitoria. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Santos vs Vitoria Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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