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Charleston vs Detroit City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 22:00

Charleston

PPG 2.50 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Detroit City

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-111.2%0-25.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.2%1-113.3%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.5%2-17.9%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.4%3-13.1%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.5% 55.6% 1.80 -25.3%

Draw 30.5% 29.9% 3.35 +2.2%

Away win 27.9% 25.0% 4.00 +7.0%

Over 2.5 46.2% 51.3% 1.95 -9.9%

Over 3.5 27.7% 29.0% 3.45 -2.7%

BTTS 47.2% 55.6% 1.80 -15.0%

Home O1.5 33.4% 51.8% 1.93 -35.5%

Away O1.5 24.0% 29.9% 3.35 -11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 42% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 12.0%

#3 1–0 14.2%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–0✓ 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charleston1.2

Detroit City0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLESTON · PPG 2.50

DETROIT CITY · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=41.5%

Win probability 1X2

Charleston (H) 41.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -25.3%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +2.2%

Detroit City (A) 27.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charleston face Detroit City in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charleston a 42% chance, the draw 31% and Detroit City 28%, so Charleston are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Charleston and 0.9 for Detroit City (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charleston are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.40 for Detroit City. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Charleston vs Detroit City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions